2014
report by the Center dimensions for Studies and Research, said it was
in the bitter harvest of the failure of the political transition of
power, and the fall of peaceful options under the feet of the militias
and armed groups, calling "the year's most ill in the history of the
Yemenis and hwy Struggles and in the Yemeni Bloodshed, and in the fall
of the state and the control of Weapons and Violence "
to a report dimensions for Statistical dead in in 2014, said "more than seven thousand Yemeni provenance by killed this year, or about three times the death toll in 2011, When young people Came out in a peaceful revolution Against the regime by, Ali Abdullah Saleh. "
He stressed That the Military lost this year alone, more than a thousand Martyrs of her children, and that about 600 of them were killed at the hands of Houthis during attacking camps and drop the provinces, with about 400 killed by al-Qaida and armed groups, mostly in the assassination and bombings and abruptness of the camps and military points of operations. "
Civilian Casualties and pointed to the deaths of about a thousand and two hundred people this year, most of them in Acts of Violence Armed groups Since the conclusion of the national dialogue on January 25 of last year's conference.
Turning to the loss of al- Qaeda, Which he said up Between (400-500) deaths of its members, about 106 of them provenance by killed in 26 air strike, the US drones (Aldorunz), Which has fallen victim to Those six sorties Civilians, Including three children.
On the Houthis losses "There is no accurate information on the victims of al-Houthi groups and estimates monitoring center dimensions says that about five armed thousands of them were killed in wars, including two thousand people in the provinces of Marib and Al-Jawf and Amran and the same number in the capital Sanaa and other cities such as Hodeidah, Ibb, and about a thousand people have died in the wars Rada Bawhita. "
The report Predicted That this process Repeated attacks • on the eastern Areas of oil to control the provinces, under the banner of protecting constructors State Camps and Prosecute Terrorists and Terrorists, and is expected to use the state and army aircraft this time to attack these Areas smitten in three wars with the tribes since 2011.
to a report dimensions for Statistical dead in in 2014, said "more than seven thousand Yemeni provenance by killed this year, or about three times the death toll in 2011, When young people Came out in a peaceful revolution Against the regime by, Ali Abdullah Saleh. "
He stressed That the Military lost this year alone, more than a thousand Martyrs of her children, and that about 600 of them were killed at the hands of Houthis during attacking camps and drop the provinces, with about 400 killed by al-Qaida and armed groups, mostly in the assassination and bombings and abruptness of the camps and military points of operations. "
Civilian Casualties and pointed to the deaths of about a thousand and two hundred people this year, most of them in Acts of Violence Armed groups Since the conclusion of the national dialogue on January 25 of last year's conference.
Turning to the loss of al- Qaeda, Which he said up Between (400-500) deaths of its members, about 106 of them provenance by killed in 26 air strike, the US drones (Aldorunz), Which has fallen victim to Those six sorties Civilians, Including three children.
On the Houthis losses "There is no accurate information on the victims of al-Houthi groups and estimates monitoring center dimensions says that about five armed thousands of them were killed in wars, including two thousand people in the provinces of Marib and Al-Jawf and Amran and the same number in the capital Sanaa and other cities such as Hodeidah, Ibb, and about a thousand people have died in the wars Rada Bawhita. "
The report Predicted That this process Repeated attacks • on the eastern Areas of oil to control the provinces, under the banner of protecting constructors State Camps and Prosecute Terrorists and Terrorists, and is expected to use the state and army aircraft this time to attack these Areas smitten in three wars with the tribes since 2011.
The fall of the State:
The report said That the Military feel insulted as a result of control Alihutheinn and Huthi Obtained the Weapons of the quality of Raiding to lead the sixth region (first ironclad former is band) and its Subsidiaries Campsites color: such as Brigade 310 in Amran, and central to the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff Command.
"We have become in the hands of the Houthis Since the start of dropping them to Camps in the state this year more than 120 tank-type (T55-T62), and about 70 armored vehicles (BTR - BMB) .20 gun (Shilka and howitzer self-motion) and about 10 vehicles (Katyusha), and nearly 100 rockets (between thermal anti-aircraft and Grad pre- Barr), and more than 100 Carrying heavy armored vehicles and medium machine guns, as well as Hundreds of Military crews Dozens of stores and live ammunition.
He stressed That the probability of access to Iranian Missiles quality of shipments along with shipments of Ceyhan ship, Which was being held, they possess about 70% of the Yemeni military capabilities, while they were besieging the other camps where the quality of weapons and strategy, such as long-range missiles, and control of military airports Btaiarat therein.
The report said That the Military feel insulted as a result of control Alihutheinn and Huthi Obtained the Weapons of the quality of Raiding to lead the sixth region (first ironclad former is band) and its Subsidiaries Campsites color: such as Brigade 310 in Amran, and central to the Ministry of Defense and the General Staff Command.
"We have become in the hands of the Houthis Since the start of dropping them to Camps in the state this year more than 120 tank-type (T55-T62), and about 70 armored vehicles (BTR - BMB) .20 gun (Shilka and howitzer self-motion) and about 10 vehicles (Katyusha), and nearly 100 rockets (between thermal anti-aircraft and Grad pre- Barr), and more than 100 Carrying heavy armored vehicles and medium machine guns, as well as Hundreds of Military crews Dozens of stores and live ammunition.
He stressed That the probability of access to Iranian Missiles quality of shipments along with shipments of Ceyhan ship, Which was being held, they possess about 70% of the Yemeni military capabilities, while they were besieging the other camps where the quality of weapons and strategy, such as long-range missiles, and control of military airports Btaiarat therein.
The collapse of the national army:
report said "there is no longer a national army after the September 21, 2014, and all the brigades in the northern and western Regions, Which provenance cumbersome in previous Conflicts with the Houthis in what is known of the six wars fell into the hands of Houthis after hwy sweep of the Leadership of the central defense in the capital Sanaa the recently, Although there are units in the north are not controlled but trapped and Prevented from moving. "
"There are some units in central Regions arrived Houthis to a weak controls the movements units known as the Republican Guard previously, there are units in the eastern and southern regions far from the control Huthi, but exposed to drain has collapsed due to the continuous attacks by al-Qaeda and some affiliated with the Southern armed tribal militants and some mobility. "
report said "there is no longer a national army after the September 21, 2014, and all the brigades in the northern and western Regions, Which provenance cumbersome in previous Conflicts with the Houthis in what is known of the six wars fell into the hands of Houthis after hwy sweep of the Leadership of the central defense in the capital Sanaa the recently, Although there are units in the north are not controlled but trapped and Prevented from moving. "
"There are some units in central Regions arrived Houthis to a weak controls the movements units known as the Republican Guard previously, there are units in the eastern and southern regions far from the control Huthi, but exposed to drain has collapsed due to the continuous attacks by al-Qaeda and some affiliated with the Southern armed tribal militants and some mobility. "
Military and multiple parallel Loyalties:
the Republican Guard, Established by former is President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the mid-nineties as an army parallel to the national army, the report said, "has Dozens of brigades in the various Governorates of the Republic of the most important camps surrounding Sana'a, has been restructuring these units trained and armed in accordance supervised by Arabs officers Plans and Western professionals, did not enter these units in the drain and wars, only participated in a simple in the sixth war during the progress of the Houthis to brown lawn area in Sanaa and around the capital, "
said the report, "but the war waged Against pro-revolution youth in 2011 in a multi-tribal Areas most important welcome Measles, was born with the Leaders of these units the case of retaliation and hostility, and so opposed to the move has been blocked some of its leaders project restructuring, but that was not the main reason for supporting the Houthis to avenge the youth revolution. "
"The way President Hadi deal with these Forces as the property of the former is president has hurt much the Capabilities of these units, where deliberately to dismantle some of its units, and the Marginalization of some of its Leaders, and the withdrawal of many financial concessions was the commander of these units, son of former President Brigadier General Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, bestowed by them. "
He said "units of what was known as the Republican Guard are the Remains of Military units Which was not exposed to the collapse, but Polarizations Which affected the faith, Became a multi-Loyalties after a clear breach of its pre-Huthi," stressing that "although leaving loyal leaders in favor of the army of soldiers from these units backing the rebels to overthrow Hadi system, hoping Saleh and his son to return, but some belonging to these units have become more loyal to Houthi out of favor. "
"As the president Hadi create Loyalties figure him inside some of these units, Becoming more dispersed and distant from the national creed Yemeni army and stuck Between Polarizations Houthis and Hadi and Saleh."
the Republican Guard, Established by former is President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the mid-nineties as an army parallel to the national army, the report said, "has Dozens of brigades in the various Governorates of the Republic of the most important camps surrounding Sana'a, has been restructuring these units trained and armed in accordance supervised by Arabs officers Plans and Western professionals, did not enter these units in the drain and wars, only participated in a simple in the sixth war during the progress of the Houthis to brown lawn area in Sanaa and around the capital, "
said the report, "but the war waged Against pro-revolution youth in 2011 in a multi-tribal Areas most important welcome Measles, was born with the Leaders of these units the case of retaliation and hostility, and so opposed to the move has been blocked some of its leaders project restructuring, but that was not the main reason for supporting the Houthis to avenge the youth revolution. "
"The way President Hadi deal with these Forces as the property of the former is president has hurt much the Capabilities of these units, where deliberately to dismantle some of its units, and the Marginalization of some of its Leaders, and the withdrawal of many financial concessions was the commander of these units, son of former President Brigadier General Ahmed Ali Abdullah Saleh, bestowed by them. "
He said "units of what was known as the Republican Guard are the Remains of Military units Which was not exposed to the collapse, but Polarizations Which affected the faith, Became a multi-Loyalties after a clear breach of its pre-Huthi," stressing that "although leaving loyal leaders in favor of the army of soldiers from these units backing the rebels to overthrow Hadi system, hoping Saleh and his son to return, but some belonging to these units have become more loyal to Houthi out of favor. "
"As the president Hadi create Loyalties figure him inside some of these units, Becoming more dispersed and distant from the national creed Yemeni army and stuck Between Polarizations Houthis and Hadi and Saleh."
President Hadi and the failure of the transition:
The report Emphasized President Hadi failed to lead a peaceful transition, Despite Solidarity and unlimited support given by his Yemeni people and regional and international community, and That this is due to the weakness of the President's personality and reluctance to make decisions, and not having a national vision or special expertise with respect to social tribal society which deliberately sidelined with the beginnings of his rule and lack of representation in the national dialogue conference, and concern conflicts and polarizations with the former president in the party and the state system created an incubator for Political and social alliances environment and put her hand with the hands of Armed groups to drop the rest of the state Symbolism.
A report by the dimensions "of the most important Reasons for Accelerated control of Armed Militias the state is on the Economic failure to Achieve the minimum requirements of life Yemeni Citizens, and the term decline of electricity, water, health and education services, and the weakness of the Military and security system to the expansion of Conflict and chaos.
As for the loss of street confidence in President Hadi said: "Some of the decisions contradictory and provide justifications for dropping armed state, while he sought popular support in and out of hundreds of thousands of people in favor of it demonstrations, pass resolutions increase the allied against the state, and while the Yemenis suffer from bad economic conditions, lacking petroleum products from the market for months, without action, but followed the decisions the removal of subsidies by the final, which helped the Houthis who were besieging Sanaa to hold tribal alliances to overthrow the state, which is similar alliances to those that led to the overthrow Amran and camps in August. "
He added, "As the president Announced the Troop buildup to protect Sanaa, has not-issued Decision create any room for Military Operations, but it was-issued Military and Civilian Leaders Decisions enable allied or close to the Armed groups in the state apparatus. "
The report, "The president was busy little arrange his papers in the south and Succeeded at Least in anesthesia Separatist movement groups, and pull the rug from under his Commanders That receded in Popularity, but on the contrary, in the north, it has contributed to his vision Althmicih tribe in the country delivered a tribal alliance with the Houthis in the north of the north, which grew like a snow ball rolling even dropped the capital Sanaa on September 21, and dropped with cities and camps and the state. "
"The president has not seen Apparently the Consequences of extended Houthis Since the start of hwy attack on the integration beginning of the year, and he has multiple local, regional and international papers to Prevent them from Reaching Sana'a, the most important of the three decisions of the Security Council, but he did not ask the international community to be activated. "
The report said, "If what happened deliberate by the president and not a failure locally That means he saw the need to Provide services for the Houthis as a prelude to an alliance with them so he can dismantle hwy alliance with his opponent, and Regionally wanted to take advantage of trends Gulf neighbors to weaken the current revolution and political Islam for political and financial support, omam the international community, President In this way plays a serious paper which need to filter the corrupt to boot a civil state, and also clip its arms influential close to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the grounds it does not accept the participation of the Houthis in the state, does not want the political stability in Yemen, headed by military leaders such as General Ali Mohsen, who put military and security adviser refused to dismiss him, to ensure the continuation of all these excuses. "
"He was a president Between 2012 and 2014 That focuses on the University and the national strategy does not leave the Military and Political spaces, social and beyond, but the fall of the capital, at the hands of Militias lost his confidence and support, and doubts began a two-way either wants the establishment of a family rule to him, or that he supports separatist projects in the north and the south, in a gradual, "stressing that" the likelihood of his way to building a civil state and ending the conflict became of options that have fallen the fall national dialogue outputs under the arm militias after that was the last hope for the Yemeni supporters and his opponents. "
Turning the report for a map of Armed Violence, and said to Crystallize the Violence in the context of four Armed groups, the most important Supporters of the movement of God (Houthis), has become the dominate the joints of the state and has the hardest and the most powerful types of Weapons superior to the state, and her own Ability to control after more penetration in the state and its intelligence and security Institutions The Military and Civilian Gradually swallowed from the inside. "
The report pointed out That "the movement you get the Military Logistical and support from Iran and Hezbollah, and moving in harmony with the Iranian Political Decision and its Influence That extends with Military action, the more exposed Iran and its arms in Iraq and Syria to regional or international Pressures. "
The report predicted that the intervention of the movement in the circle of violent conflict and open drain with a tribal society, which began to feel the seriousness of the threat to its interests due to the targeting of the Houthi tribe and with the creation of entities, a new community and leaders, "he said, adding" the regional developments in favor of or against Iran is an important factor can not be ignored in the survival of the control of the Houthis During the year 2015 or support to confront them and their downfall. "
for the second group, the Nazim al-Qaeda (Ansar al-Sharia and the base of the Arabian Peninsula), the report said, "Constitutes Adoption of the rule on individual Acts of Disorganized and strategy thru Bombings and Assassinations and attacks • targeting Civilians and the military, the main justification for the expansion Houthis and for alliances political and community with them, the fact that such operations retardation victims of civilians and innocent people. "
He added, "and Also the more than stretch the Houthis and the feel of the community Iniquities, Whenever expanding the base incubator and expand revenge folk Against them," adding the al-Qaeda That Movements Against the Houthis in terms of-sectarian justify the Houthis use-sectarian Intolerance to confront the Political and Military and popular resistance of Yemeni Society, Which Provides regional and international intervention in the Conflict, may lead to a recurrence of Syria and Iraq Scenarios in Yemen. "
The report Emphasized That Jihadist Armed groups Suffer from Intrusions and said, "So it is very easy to pay to open fronts with different ingredients societal and political entities and perhaps regional and international parties, and this is what achieves influence in favor of the armed Houthi movement that will expand its alliances even complete control of Yemen. "
congregation third, a Southern Movement Armed, the report said, "The Armed movement in the south extension of overlapping regional Conflict Between Iran and Saudi Arabia, has sponsored Tehran Been thru Hezbollah, this movement without the support of peaceful movement, and trained leaders of the inside of local and regional camps run by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fighters, and it was this support comes across former vice president Ali Salem, who announced separation in the summer of 1994 and was defeated by the forces of President Saleh before leaving to exile. "
The report Emphasized President Hadi failed to lead a peaceful transition, Despite Solidarity and unlimited support given by his Yemeni people and regional and international community, and That this is due to the weakness of the President's personality and reluctance to make decisions, and not having a national vision or special expertise with respect to social tribal society which deliberately sidelined with the beginnings of his rule and lack of representation in the national dialogue conference, and concern conflicts and polarizations with the former president in the party and the state system created an incubator for Political and social alliances environment and put her hand with the hands of Armed groups to drop the rest of the state Symbolism.
A report by the dimensions "of the most important Reasons for Accelerated control of Armed Militias the state is on the Economic failure to Achieve the minimum requirements of life Yemeni Citizens, and the term decline of electricity, water, health and education services, and the weakness of the Military and security system to the expansion of Conflict and chaos.
As for the loss of street confidence in President Hadi said: "Some of the decisions contradictory and provide justifications for dropping armed state, while he sought popular support in and out of hundreds of thousands of people in favor of it demonstrations, pass resolutions increase the allied against the state, and while the Yemenis suffer from bad economic conditions, lacking petroleum products from the market for months, without action, but followed the decisions the removal of subsidies by the final, which helped the Houthis who were besieging Sanaa to hold tribal alliances to overthrow the state, which is similar alliances to those that led to the overthrow Amran and camps in August. "
He added, "As the president Announced the Troop buildup to protect Sanaa, has not-issued Decision create any room for Military Operations, but it was-issued Military and Civilian Leaders Decisions enable allied or close to the Armed groups in the state apparatus. "
The report, "The president was busy little arrange his papers in the south and Succeeded at Least in anesthesia Separatist movement groups, and pull the rug from under his Commanders That receded in Popularity, but on the contrary, in the north, it has contributed to his vision Althmicih tribe in the country delivered a tribal alliance with the Houthis in the north of the north, which grew like a snow ball rolling even dropped the capital Sanaa on September 21, and dropped with cities and camps and the state. "
"The president has not seen Apparently the Consequences of extended Houthis Since the start of hwy attack on the integration beginning of the year, and he has multiple local, regional and international papers to Prevent them from Reaching Sana'a, the most important of the three decisions of the Security Council, but he did not ask the international community to be activated. "
The report said, "If what happened deliberate by the president and not a failure locally That means he saw the need to Provide services for the Houthis as a prelude to an alliance with them so he can dismantle hwy alliance with his opponent, and Regionally wanted to take advantage of trends Gulf neighbors to weaken the current revolution and political Islam for political and financial support, omam the international community, President In this way plays a serious paper which need to filter the corrupt to boot a civil state, and also clip its arms influential close to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia on the grounds it does not accept the participation of the Houthis in the state, does not want the political stability in Yemen, headed by military leaders such as General Ali Mohsen, who put military and security adviser refused to dismiss him, to ensure the continuation of all these excuses. "
"He was a president Between 2012 and 2014 That focuses on the University and the national strategy does not leave the Military and Political spaces, social and beyond, but the fall of the capital, at the hands of Militias lost his confidence and support, and doubts began a two-way either wants the establishment of a family rule to him, or that he supports separatist projects in the north and the south, in a gradual, "stressing that" the likelihood of his way to building a civil state and ending the conflict became of options that have fallen the fall national dialogue outputs under the arm militias after that was the last hope for the Yemeni supporters and his opponents. "
Turning the report for a map of Armed Violence, and said to Crystallize the Violence in the context of four Armed groups, the most important Supporters of the movement of God (Houthis), has become the dominate the joints of the state and has the hardest and the most powerful types of Weapons superior to the state, and her own Ability to control after more penetration in the state and its intelligence and security Institutions The Military and Civilian Gradually swallowed from the inside. "
The report pointed out That "the movement you get the Military Logistical and support from Iran and Hezbollah, and moving in harmony with the Iranian Political Decision and its Influence That extends with Military action, the more exposed Iran and its arms in Iraq and Syria to regional or international Pressures. "
The report predicted that the intervention of the movement in the circle of violent conflict and open drain with a tribal society, which began to feel the seriousness of the threat to its interests due to the targeting of the Houthi tribe and with the creation of entities, a new community and leaders, "he said, adding" the regional developments in favor of or against Iran is an important factor can not be ignored in the survival of the control of the Houthis During the year 2015 or support to confront them and their downfall. "
for the second group, the Nazim al-Qaeda (Ansar al-Sharia and the base of the Arabian Peninsula), the report said, "Constitutes Adoption of the rule on individual Acts of Disorganized and strategy thru Bombings and Assassinations and attacks • targeting Civilians and the military, the main justification for the expansion Houthis and for alliances political and community with them, the fact that such operations retardation victims of civilians and innocent people. "
He added, "and Also the more than stretch the Houthis and the feel of the community Iniquities, Whenever expanding the base incubator and expand revenge folk Against them," adding the al-Qaeda That Movements Against the Houthis in terms of-sectarian justify the Houthis use-sectarian Intolerance to confront the Political and Military and popular resistance of Yemeni Society, Which Provides regional and international intervention in the Conflict, may lead to a recurrence of Syria and Iraq Scenarios in Yemen. "
The report Emphasized That Jihadist Armed groups Suffer from Intrusions and said, "So it is very easy to pay to open fronts with different ingredients societal and political entities and perhaps regional and international parties, and this is what achieves influence in favor of the armed Houthi movement that will expand its alliances even complete control of Yemen. "
congregation third, a Southern Movement Armed, the report said, "The Armed movement in the south extension of overlapping regional Conflict Between Iran and Saudi Arabia, has sponsored Tehran Been thru Hezbollah, this movement without the support of peaceful movement, and trained leaders of the inside of local and regional camps run by Hezbollah and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard fighters, and it was this support comes across former vice president Ali Salem, who announced separation in the summer of 1994 and was defeated by the forces of President Saleh before leaving to exile. "
"This movement is trying to get regional support from non Iran to
complete the process of separation, but after the control of the Houthis
on the Sanaa and threatened to invade the south subsided movements in
parallel with the Saudi attempt to pull the rug Southern Movement from
under the feet of Iran, as Hadi plan contributed to contain the armed
movement to weaken its effectiveness and his movements, but remains its
own camps in Dalea and Hadramout pilgrimage and a ticking time bomb may
lead to wars and conflicts and violence contributes to the fragmentation
of the south and not only separation. "
According to the report, "through direct negotiations with the Yemeni
state in Amman trying to Iran to impose a judgment transitional be
former Southern President Ali Nasser Mohammed role in it, which is
practically the boot to control the south and north through military and
political force leaders on the ground to ensure full control of the
Strait of Bab Mandeb. "
The
fourth group, the armed tribes, the report stressed that it has become
the weakest link between armed groups after being torn apart and led
Chrzmha and support some of the components of the Houthi movement to
drop their impact and the collapse of its armed groups in favor of
al-Qaeda and the Houthis. "
"It keeps the tribe on some balances within the country but have been
affected by political conflicts previously to become closer to the state
party from the state arms, and supported peaceful change without being
drawn to the war, except in limited cases, but the sense of political
marginalization transfer battles between these currents to the inside, I
left a great void in community structure filled weapon groups. "
He stressed that the tribe "need to rearrange their leaves as the
military establishment is preparing the strengths of the state and
society in which the state can be restored and the building of a new
political system."
Political available:
the report said, "Long live the Yemeni political parties last year, the case of Lack of confidence, Including Those That fall under the bloc joint meeting," adding the, "even though it Coincided in the framework of a national dialogue on the outputs the promote the Political transition of the country's conference, but it has Been woven into alliances under table Against each other in an attempt powerful ones to Weaken. "
about the Congress Party, the report said, "the GPC was not Able to Overcome the trauma they suffered in 2011 after more than three decades solo state and its instruments, but the Gulf initiative that put the map of political transition have impact the largest in the non-oriented opponents to uproot this party that managed through alliances woven between the power outlets in the state and the ports of force in the community thru the tribe to be present Throughout the Republic of Yemen. "
He added, "Since 2011, Became the conference in a circle polarization Between the former is president and current as If the Military establishment, which has made the sheikhs who represent leading alliances with the Houthis to avenge the Revolution 2011, which brought down the party chairman and founder of power. "
According to the report, "leaving in favor of revenge, Which led to chaos and Violence That the task of restoring confidence in him as a man who is important to the state, Which can not be Unseat him, but it was Considered as a direct and indirect armed groups support, which necessitated the Security Council and the United States and the European Union to put on the list of obstructionists to move and seek sanctions requires the freezing of funds and travel bans, accompanied by leaders of the Houthi movement Abu Ali , the ruler and the brother of Houthi leader Abdul Khaliq Huthi, two Kiedian Two violations in the group (Ansar Allah) Huthi was first contributed to the drop Imran and camps, and contributed the second to drop the capital. "
He pointed out That "he Could Contribute to the case of the transition in the restructuring of the conference by calling for conference in the party and the creation of a new Leadership good relationship with all Political Parties and partners Within and outside the party and at the local, regional and international level, but the opposite happened, where was the exclusion of the Secretary-General, Dr Abdul Karim al-Eryani of the party, one of the most able to manage transition and earn the trust and support home and abroad after his dismissal as well as the separation of Deputy chairman of the party the current president of the state, which led to a decline in the party effect locally, regionally and internationally, which leads to armed groups fill in the blanks left by the tribal structure of society. "
reform and policy, Which he described paternity more flexible direction of the state, the report said, "the policy During and after the Revolutionary case in in 2011, led to a state of suspicion Against him and has become Controversial, Internally and externally, was considered that the most powerful entity who owns a political, military, social and economic influence of the base, which led to the complicity of everyone locally and regionally with the direction the Houthis to target the party and its leaders and its members to ensure the case of political stability of the party and Yemen after clip its tentacles window, as to justify some of the analyzes, as the United Nations and its representative Jamal bin Omar denies the ten countries that sponsor transmission flag plan Houthis to overthrow the state. "
He added, "leaving the reform apparently Decision to confront the Houthis to its members Within the community hwy constituents and not the party, but after the fall of Amran and fall State Camps there in August last, move in a regulatory Toward support President Hadi and the state, and began to think seriously of arming a number of its members who are able to fight for state support options if it decides the confrontation, but soon withdraw militants from its members in the capital after the offering Houthis towards camps without any my grandfather moved to the army to prevent the militias from dropping the state. "
The report said "reform needs to quickly change its tactics and strategy after That maintained the Political party performance and most importantly, he needs to hold a conference in the change of its Leaders That have Been Successful in managing the Crisis, and failed to exploit Mtahat revolution and politics. ".
As the Bipartisan Nazareth and Socialist, the report said: "After a decade recent central Matmrathma this year got concrete Changes for the Benefit of young people, but Remains the Socialist live regional case rather than a national situation, having put the party organization leaders in the sole representative of the southern issue box despite a drop in popularity There are in favor of the movement's pro-secession groups. "
He added, "Besides the form of convergence of some Socialist Party Leaders with the Houthi movement Leaders color: such as the fall of Sanaa case of Questioning the orientations of the former is strategy, and Became seen from two perspectives, Either there will be a Misjudgment of the situation by the leaders Party before the last change, or that it supports the separation of the south quietly Options. "
about the future of politics, the report said "policy options Remain subject to the Completion of the Political transition, and the application of the national dialogue outputs, and a document of peace and partnership signed by the party Leaders in the same day of the fall of the capital, and remains subject to the degree of acceptance Houthis, who control the land and impose a new reality under the force of arms to integrate into political action, renounce violence, and unless that happens the rest of this large parties are unable even to rival parties newly created and adopted by the Houthis to form a ruling coalition and the last shows, without the need for a partnership of political forces of the actual impact. "
He pointed out That the Political climate will be bound by multiple Factors, the most important "regional and international Conflicts on the national impact of Infrastructure, and the Extent to Which support for the transition, the United Nations ten Countries, to force Houthi Gunmen to accept the choices of democracy away from the achievement of political goals through violence and weapons. "
the report said, "Long live the Yemeni political parties last year, the case of Lack of confidence, Including Those That fall under the bloc joint meeting," adding the, "even though it Coincided in the framework of a national dialogue on the outputs the promote the Political transition of the country's conference, but it has Been woven into alliances under table Against each other in an attempt powerful ones to Weaken. "
about the Congress Party, the report said, "the GPC was not Able to Overcome the trauma they suffered in 2011 after more than three decades solo state and its instruments, but the Gulf initiative that put the map of political transition have impact the largest in the non-oriented opponents to uproot this party that managed through alliances woven between the power outlets in the state and the ports of force in the community thru the tribe to be present Throughout the Republic of Yemen. "
He added, "Since 2011, Became the conference in a circle polarization Between the former is president and current as If the Military establishment, which has made the sheikhs who represent leading alliances with the Houthis to avenge the Revolution 2011, which brought down the party chairman and founder of power. "
According to the report, "leaving in favor of revenge, Which led to chaos and Violence That the task of restoring confidence in him as a man who is important to the state, Which can not be Unseat him, but it was Considered as a direct and indirect armed groups support, which necessitated the Security Council and the United States and the European Union to put on the list of obstructionists to move and seek sanctions requires the freezing of funds and travel bans, accompanied by leaders of the Houthi movement Abu Ali , the ruler and the brother of Houthi leader Abdul Khaliq Huthi, two Kiedian Two violations in the group (Ansar Allah) Huthi was first contributed to the drop Imran and camps, and contributed the second to drop the capital. "
He pointed out That "he Could Contribute to the case of the transition in the restructuring of the conference by calling for conference in the party and the creation of a new Leadership good relationship with all Political Parties and partners Within and outside the party and at the local, regional and international level, but the opposite happened, where was the exclusion of the Secretary-General, Dr Abdul Karim al-Eryani of the party, one of the most able to manage transition and earn the trust and support home and abroad after his dismissal as well as the separation of Deputy chairman of the party the current president of the state, which led to a decline in the party effect locally, regionally and internationally, which leads to armed groups fill in the blanks left by the tribal structure of society. "
reform and policy, Which he described paternity more flexible direction of the state, the report said, "the policy During and after the Revolutionary case in in 2011, led to a state of suspicion Against him and has become Controversial, Internally and externally, was considered that the most powerful entity who owns a political, military, social and economic influence of the base, which led to the complicity of everyone locally and regionally with the direction the Houthis to target the party and its leaders and its members to ensure the case of political stability of the party and Yemen after clip its tentacles window, as to justify some of the analyzes, as the United Nations and its representative Jamal bin Omar denies the ten countries that sponsor transmission flag plan Houthis to overthrow the state. "
He added, "leaving the reform apparently Decision to confront the Houthis to its members Within the community hwy constituents and not the party, but after the fall of Amran and fall State Camps there in August last, move in a regulatory Toward support President Hadi and the state, and began to think seriously of arming a number of its members who are able to fight for state support options if it decides the confrontation, but soon withdraw militants from its members in the capital after the offering Houthis towards camps without any my grandfather moved to the army to prevent the militias from dropping the state. "
The report said "reform needs to quickly change its tactics and strategy after That maintained the Political party performance and most importantly, he needs to hold a conference in the change of its Leaders That have Been Successful in managing the Crisis, and failed to exploit Mtahat revolution and politics. ".
As the Bipartisan Nazareth and Socialist, the report said: "After a decade recent central Matmrathma this year got concrete Changes for the Benefit of young people, but Remains the Socialist live regional case rather than a national situation, having put the party organization leaders in the sole representative of the southern issue box despite a drop in popularity There are in favor of the movement's pro-secession groups. "
He added, "Besides the form of convergence of some Socialist Party Leaders with the Houthi movement Leaders color: such as the fall of Sanaa case of Questioning the orientations of the former is strategy, and Became seen from two perspectives, Either there will be a Misjudgment of the situation by the leaders Party before the last change, or that it supports the separation of the south quietly Options. "
about the future of politics, the report said "policy options Remain subject to the Completion of the Political transition, and the application of the national dialogue outputs, and a document of peace and partnership signed by the party Leaders in the same day of the fall of the capital, and remains subject to the degree of acceptance Houthis, who control the land and impose a new reality under the force of arms to integrate into political action, renounce violence, and unless that happens the rest of this large parties are unable even to rival parties newly created and adopted by the Houthis to form a ruling coalition and the last shows, without the need for a partnership of political forces of the actual impact. "
He pointed out That the Political climate will be bound by multiple Factors, the most important "regional and international Conflicts on the national impact of Infrastructure, and the Extent to Which support for the transition, the United Nations ten Countries, to force Houthi Gunmen to accept the choices of democracy away from the achievement of political goals through violence and weapons. "
Regional and international interference:
Dimensions "Yemen is witnessing a blatant interference and non-positive by the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is openly control Houthis on Yemeni state extension of the victories of the Islamic Revolution," a report said.
"Some Gulf states to support the revolutions of anti contributed as a case of fear of Islamists who are believed to be the main driver, on a weakening of political and popular resistance against Houthi movement in Yemen."
"The expansion of the Houthis in Yemen could lead to mind the Iranian influence, threatening the national security of the Gulf, so there are anti-interference negatively leads to support a new armed groups, with the continuing collapse of the state, which has been Yemen war zonal and sectarian, may be a prelude to the ignition entire region ".
The report, "watching the major countries involved in overseeing the political transition process, led by Washington, the situation in Yemen is worrying, especially after a collective complaint to about 16 diplomatic stresses being harassed by the Houthis, but even so, however, there is overlap they have between the political and sectarian conflicts, What makes them look for the Houthis as an emerging societal movement, although armed, but may reconsider lost due to the control of the military and tribal balance. "
"It may also be considered for the Houthis from the international community that they need to make a political balance with the Reform Party, and a tool suitable for cleaning the state of corruption and influence dominant, but the risk in over look the international community that the Houthi movement is suitable to be a tool to threaten oil Gulf from the south in case fell balance tools with Saudi Arabia, which is represented by the Iranian influence in the north parts of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. "
He stressed that he can use the Houthis by considering their control "may be an appropriate way to put pressure on Iran to achieve nuclear program agreement and the success of the negotiation, this armed country people and the complex societal structure could be the bait that encourages Iran to move forward in reconciliation with the international community and end Vaudhaha in the region, and can be converted into a quagmire of a new strain of Iran in the event of continued intransigence and refusal to side swamps of attrition in Syria and Iraq. "
The report summarizes the expectations of the performance of the international community in Yemen during the next year, saying, "Do you will deal with the Houthi movement as a tool or strategically, it was a tool we could see more violence and the expansion and shed movement need be used in any scenario, though his view of the strategy of the movement, it will not be separated from Yemen strategy and the need for stability and to prevent its collapse, and thus the pressure on the movement of urbanization. "
He predicted that the 2015 year to pay for the absence and drop the state in 2014, and said, "revealed dozens of documents to undermine the clear state of Yemen, and the curvature of an unprecedented political decision-makers of the armed militias, in a bad time experienced by the Yemeni economy President serves nearly half a million dollars for the Houthis to take care of a religious ceremony, while ensures the capital secretariat to provide substantial financial support for the success of the propaganda campaign for the same occasion, along with the imposition of levies and royalties Huthi citizens, farmers and traders, at the time of each service stop development projects in the country, even those externally supported. "
"I like what Houthis want to check this occasion presence popular locally, are meant to provide new evidence to the outside on the strength and popular presence, but the most important is that it is an opportunity to strengthen the financial capacity of the movement Huthi, especially in light of Iranian support for Hezbollah stopped, and a large drop in financing the Houthis after oil prices fell to their lowest levels. "
He said that the general conclusion of the previous day bloody killing and wounding a dozen, is an indicator of the new year, saying "the terrorist attack against civilians gathered at a religious celebration called for by the Houthis in Ibb raise the alarm that the country began to enter a different stage of the conflict, may slips with Yemen to swamp regional and factional and sectarian war, a war that gives justification of violent armed groups that fail to gain influence through policy instruments, to do to change the demography of the map through arms and violence to get longer influence. "
And scenarios "The lack of sliding Yemen similar to what is happening in Syria and Iraq civil war, ruled by multiple scenarios First scenario national solution from the inside, there may be a political solution through the presidential elections to nominate a prime acceptable to all parties, including the Houthis, with the need to accept This movement, which became a dominant position on the integration in the political situation and the formation of a partisan civil stream. "
"The second scenario assumes for popular resistance and national re-state and the military prestige, and this scenario sees the need to change the convictions of Gulf neighbors and the international community toward some popular Islamic and liberal, nationalist and leftist movements to participate in the revolution of February peaceful 2011 11, because that bloc alone who earn community trust Before Tzaazaah authority to move that failed to achieve the objectives and the demands of the youth. "
The third scenario, he said that the most dangerous in the case did not get any of the scenarios to be linked to failure, adding, "leaving the conflict tools continue to weaken the state and society, may lead to voids filled jihadist groups in resistance Huthi through religious and denominational and sectarian wars, could push the country to further collapse and possibly falling into the shafts of civil wars and armed chaos swamp. "
Dimensions "Yemen is witnessing a blatant interference and non-positive by the Islamic Republic of Iran, which is openly control Houthis on Yemeni state extension of the victories of the Islamic Revolution," a report said.
"Some Gulf states to support the revolutions of anti contributed as a case of fear of Islamists who are believed to be the main driver, on a weakening of political and popular resistance against Houthi movement in Yemen."
"The expansion of the Houthis in Yemen could lead to mind the Iranian influence, threatening the national security of the Gulf, so there are anti-interference negatively leads to support a new armed groups, with the continuing collapse of the state, which has been Yemen war zonal and sectarian, may be a prelude to the ignition entire region ".
The report, "watching the major countries involved in overseeing the political transition process, led by Washington, the situation in Yemen is worrying, especially after a collective complaint to about 16 diplomatic stresses being harassed by the Houthis, but even so, however, there is overlap they have between the political and sectarian conflicts, What makes them look for the Houthis as an emerging societal movement, although armed, but may reconsider lost due to the control of the military and tribal balance. "
"It may also be considered for the Houthis from the international community that they need to make a political balance with the Reform Party, and a tool suitable for cleaning the state of corruption and influence dominant, but the risk in over look the international community that the Houthi movement is suitable to be a tool to threaten oil Gulf from the south in case fell balance tools with Saudi Arabia, which is represented by the Iranian influence in the north parts of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. "
He stressed that he can use the Houthis by considering their control "may be an appropriate way to put pressure on Iran to achieve nuclear program agreement and the success of the negotiation, this armed country people and the complex societal structure could be the bait that encourages Iran to move forward in reconciliation with the international community and end Vaudhaha in the region, and can be converted into a quagmire of a new strain of Iran in the event of continued intransigence and refusal to side swamps of attrition in Syria and Iraq. "
The report summarizes the expectations of the performance of the international community in Yemen during the next year, saying, "Do you will deal with the Houthi movement as a tool or strategically, it was a tool we could see more violence and the expansion and shed movement need be used in any scenario, though his view of the strategy of the movement, it will not be separated from Yemen strategy and the need for stability and to prevent its collapse, and thus the pressure on the movement of urbanization. "
He predicted that the 2015 year to pay for the absence and drop the state in 2014, and said, "revealed dozens of documents to undermine the clear state of Yemen, and the curvature of an unprecedented political decision-makers of the armed militias, in a bad time experienced by the Yemeni economy President serves nearly half a million dollars for the Houthis to take care of a religious ceremony, while ensures the capital secretariat to provide substantial financial support for the success of the propaganda campaign for the same occasion, along with the imposition of levies and royalties Huthi citizens, farmers and traders, at the time of each service stop development projects in the country, even those externally supported. "
"I like what Houthis want to check this occasion presence popular locally, are meant to provide new evidence to the outside on the strength and popular presence, but the most important is that it is an opportunity to strengthen the financial capacity of the movement Huthi, especially in light of Iranian support for Hezbollah stopped, and a large drop in financing the Houthis after oil prices fell to their lowest levels. "
He said that the general conclusion of the previous day bloody killing and wounding a dozen, is an indicator of the new year, saying "the terrorist attack against civilians gathered at a religious celebration called for by the Houthis in Ibb raise the alarm that the country began to enter a different stage of the conflict, may slips with Yemen to swamp regional and factional and sectarian war, a war that gives justification of violent armed groups that fail to gain influence through policy instruments, to do to change the demography of the map through arms and violence to get longer influence. "
And scenarios "The lack of sliding Yemen similar to what is happening in Syria and Iraq civil war, ruled by multiple scenarios First scenario national solution from the inside, there may be a political solution through the presidential elections to nominate a prime acceptable to all parties, including the Houthis, with the need to accept This movement, which became a dominant position on the integration in the political situation and the formation of a partisan civil stream. "
"The second scenario assumes for popular resistance and national re-state and the military prestige, and this scenario sees the need to change the convictions of Gulf neighbors and the international community toward some popular Islamic and liberal, nationalist and leftist movements to participate in the revolution of February peaceful 2011 11, because that bloc alone who earn community trust Before Tzaazaah authority to move that failed to achieve the objectives and the demands of the youth. "
The third scenario, he said that the most dangerous in the case did not get any of the scenarios to be linked to failure, adding, "leaving the conflict tools continue to weaken the state and society, may lead to voids filled jihadist groups in resistance Huthi through religious and denominational and sectarian wars, could push the country to further collapse and possibly falling into the shafts of civil wars and armed chaos swamp. "
Report
Center dimensions for Studies and Research, said that the Yemenis in
the south feel that the opportunity to self-determination and
dismantling of their association with the north has become a window now,
and Ahtphalyatem today on the anniversary of the victory of the
revolution on the English colonialism in the October 14 1963m beginning
of the countdown to the secession of Aden from Sanaa.
The
report issued by the Center branch in Aden that southerners believe
that the legality of secession, this time provided by the invasion of
armed Houthi movement of the capital Sanaa on September 20, after the
imposition armed to the reality of a new alternative to the transitional
rule that the contents of the initiative Gulf sponsoring political
peaceful transition of power, signed under the supervision of regional
and international in November 2011..
The
report added, "The Yemenis in the south believe that the official
silence and complicity of regional and international front control
Houthis on civil and military institutions and system control and
governance, led to the new decade the federal unit included in the
national dialogue outputs of early failure, and led to the lack of
effectiveness and feasibility of the Security Council resolutions, in
particular resolution 2140 Judge penalties for Maiqi transition and in
accordance with Chapter VII of the Charter of the United Nations. "
The
report emphasized that the southern provinces in particular Aden saw in
the era of the rule of President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi quieter not
seen since the outbreak of protests southerners in the 2007m, adding
"President Hadi succeeded in the situation in the south, in contrast to
its predecessor control, but failed to address the situation in the
north of the north, as achieved authority progress with the Southern
Movement, received his stab Houthis after the overthrow of the most
important cities and camps of the capital Sanaa. "
The
report touched on a variety of scenarios for the southern Yemeni under
the unstable situation of the Republic of Yemen and the state of
helplessness and weakness of the President of the Party and the
political system and to participate in the transitional government in
front of armed control for new partners in the ruling on the joints of
the state.
A
report by the dimensions "The first scenario in achieving southerners
fast and complete separation, if available certain conditions Kamtlakem
strong leadership and replace that all entities of the Southern Command
State during the stage of self-determination, and they have a strong
regional and international support, to avoid the risk of slipping to
rupture and conflicts Southern and wars." .
On
the second scenario, the report added, "Southern President Hadi
authority may contribute to a safe and slow separation to avoid failure
and minimize risk and in multiples of roses local, regional and
international action is interested in such a decision, and like it
imposes on this leadership to stay in power and bear more of the burden
and accusations of failure and default ".
The
third scenario describing the report as it will be inspiring, despite
the exclusion achieved, and is that Southerners tend to adopt a re a new
formulation of the Yemeni unity based on the law and the constitution,
pluralism and democracy and free of lobbyists and influence regional and
community, stressing that "it imposes on them the leadership of the
political, military and civil struggle to force the militias Huthi Armed
to end the control of the government and the capital dropped by them in
the timing was the presidency and the prime minister and the leadership
of the army in the hands of the South. "
The
report emphasized the significant risks surrounding the southern right
in hopes of restoring what was known as the Democratic People's Republic
of Yemen capital Aden, what makes the safe separation in the near
foreseeable future difficult to achieve.
And
the first threat report revealed that he is in international fears of
secession of the south as it stands, which is seen as a store of
ideology is political and that are likely to be tributary jihadist
movements that may dominate the provinces in the event of a similar
political conflict conflict 1986m, which has led to social disaster and
humanitarian did not leave memory Southerners today.
"The
risks that threaten the new southern state in such a situation is to
fears of use abroad for the Houthis to target store ideological and
confuse, and may pave the way for that task than during the filming of
Rada in white the most important interval cities between the north and
south began to it under the control of Ansar al-Sharia, a city not
included in the map of serious war on terrorism, the Ministry of
Defence, which targeted the Emirate of Ansar al-Sharia in Abyan during
the past two years, and comes amid leaks about the intention of military
leaders paved the Houthis control Sanaa handed over the task of
fighting terrorism there, a trend that would impose a sectarian war
could drag youth south to her, especially since the indicators monitored
emotional move for a lot of young people participating in the south,
along with the Salafists through integration war waged by the Houthis. "
The
report pointed out that the speech Houthi leader of the South has
changed, and he's talking as a supreme religious authority on any
political situation of the North and the South, and that his speech
began identifies with the new task of the movement abroad wants to give
the role in the South, has stems to be implemented through a fake
slogans are to carry the banner of protecting the state and the
application of the national dialogue outputs and implementation of
international resolutions to protect the Yemeni unity and the fight
against terrorism, as he tends to effectively control the Bab al-Mandab,
which is explained by the recent expansion of the control of the Red
Sea, including the second most important port of Yemen is a port of
Hodeidah Western cities.
Among
the risks monitored by the report of the dimensions and threaten the
expected South State is to the south are more susceptible to the civil
war that has failed in the north, he said, "The second risk is that the
ideology and regional strongly present and bring with them all the
previous conflicts over power in the absence of leadership and trust
among the southerners."
The
third danger that occur in the report is a complete separation of the
south and the possibility of going to rupture and fragmentation and the
emergence of states and multiple entities failure, especially since
there is constant talk about the Gulf ambitions in Hadramout British
ambitions in Aden and the ambitions of Iran in the Bab al-Mandab
American ambitions in the desert oil areas between Shabwa and Hadramout.
But
on the fourth danger he recalled his report as a ticking time bomb that
could explode in the face of the southern dream after the separation,
which is the overlapping and intermingling between some of the southern
movement in particular and armed near the components of Iran and Ansar
al-Sharia Branch actor for al-Qaeda in the south, the report said,
"There are leaders Hrakih South of former links to Iran visited Beirut
and Tehran have come under the banner of Ansar al-Sharia has recently
become active in, without losing charisma among its supporters within
the Southern Movement, has been seeking after the separation of the
control system of government in the same way adopted by the Houthis in
the north, which, therefore the south go either the bosom of violence
and terrorism or Iranian influence groups. "
The
report emphasized that all options have become difficult in front of
the Yemeni and not only Southerners, especially with the direction the
Houthis to repeat the Iraq experience in integrating Melcyatem military
and security devices and repeat the de-military experience but partially
aimed at leaders and members of the military to control the quality of
military units in particular airline, and the start of a new phase wars
in the east and south regions to complete the provisions of the military
control of the country
The
report predicted that the latest developments in Yemen and indicators
of the presence of international support for the Houthis indirectly, may
be a green light to the role of Iran in the region does not stop at
Yemen, but will extend to the Gulf was aimed particularly Saudi Arabia.
A
report of the Center for the dimensions for Studies and Research of the
striking decline options peace in Yemen, in exchange for increasing
clear indicators of violence and at an unprecedented pace.
"The transitional situation in the country is threatened by failure,
because those who failed to make the transition to take serious action
to meet demands for change and won the trust of the Yemenis."
He stressed the case for the Yemeni situation issued by unit strategies
and visions of the future in the center that the thought of violence
began gaining new adherents in particular among young people, and that
the armed groups achieved an expansion on the ground and gain new
influence with each day it fails to move in gains for the construction
project authorities report State.
The dimensions of the Center for Studies report, "There is a scary
feeling appears Yemen like a roll gradually into the bosom of violent
groups, and there are great fears of the possibility of the fall of the
imminent state of Yemen indicators, in the case of some of the armed
groups to drop the capital Sanaa through multiple different scenarios
attempts have succeeded. "
The report revealed new statistics for the victims as a result of
operations carried out by armed groups, violence against military and
civilian institutions since the conclusion of the national dialogue on
January 25 of this year's conference.
According to the report, "the military operations of the army against
al Qaeda killed nearly 300 component of the organization's members, as
were killed in military operations and armed attacks of the base against
the military and civilians, nearly 200 military personnel, including
about 15 officers, and nearly 30 civilians during that period. "
The group armed Houthi attacks on the city of Amran, camp, Major
General (310) and other military points in Sana'a and Jawf has led to
the deaths of about 400 military personnel, including officers and
leaders, headed by Brigadier Hamid Alakecaba brigade commander, and the
loss of more than 250 civilians, in exchange for the loss of the Houthis
for more of two thousand armed, were killed in the wars waged by the
military and civilian institutions since the end of the national
dialogue conference before more than half a year.
The report pointed out that the war waged by Houthi armed movement to
overthrow the Amran province that still impose control it even after the
president's visit and the Declaration recognizes the state has, may
have led to the destruction of hundreds of homes and the displacement of
hundreds of thousands, and the arrest of nearly a thousand civilians by
the Houthis who blew also dozens of schools and the role of worship and
the headquarters of political parties, charities and civil society
organizations.
Based on the inability of the transition process:
He pointed unit strategies report that there are factors that
contributed to the development of Yemen in the case of transmission risk
and unsafe, saying that the most important key factor due to the lack
of awareness of those in charge of the transition process the
seriousness of the stage, and have committed serious errors, including:
failure to expedite the process of procedures to enforce a national
dialogue outputs, Almsnod support not limited locally, regionally and
internationally.
The report said "turned three resolutions issued by the Security
Council in support of the political transition peaceful transfer of
power in Yemen to useless decisions in the eyes of Yemenis as it did not
meet their demands for change and transition, are as follows:
Resolution ( 2014) issued on October 21, 2011, and the resolution (2051)
of At June 12, 2012, and the resolution (2040) issued on February 26,
2013 ".
The report criticized the lack of activation of the final decision,
which included penalties for Maiqi move under Chapter VII of the Charter
of the United Nations, against the militant Shi'ite group, which
brought down the province and camp in a war waged on the regions of
Amran and Sana'a around the capital after the agreement on the national
dialogue in which I participated actively between March 18, 2013 outputs
and January 25, 2014.
He also pointed out that failure to take advantage of the sanctions
resolution after the biggest breakthrough of the output of the national
dialogue, making Yemenis fear that sanctions be a paper used by local
and international bodies against political parties change activists,
without pressing them on armed groups to integrate into the political
work and left arms.
The report on the dimensions of the "leniency in the implementation of
the national dialogue outputs by those in charge of the transition
process due to multiple possibilities, either the inability and weakness
in control of the situation, or the indifference and lack of awareness
of the seriousness of the situation, or an attempt to strike a balance
through what is known to weaken the influence of political and social
forces window in the state, "he said." If the goal of amputation
political parties actors operations and socially after her national
stems from keenness to end some armed groups concerns and continued
encouragement for integration in the political process, all that would
bring in the peace process, but if it is after is a national authority,
it does not produce a new and influential leaders in the transitional
provision as they think, but will lead to the strengthening of the armed
entities at the expense of social and political target entities. "
He stressed that those in charge of the transition process bear the
greatest responsibility in front of the danger that we have reached the
transitional case the situation, saying, "They were able leaves are
arranged according to the expected case scenarios, if there was a
deficit , weak or even non-prior awareness of the seriousness of the
situation, he can call the security paper and international sanctions
Council and, if all that is happening is the result of a balance by
trimming the influence of social and political entities to encourage
armed entities political integration, was supposed to start the
imposition of state procedures, and the launch of the withdrawal of
weapons from armed groups that possess heavy weapons, then the rest of
the social and political entities that possess a weapon moderate and
mild. "
The dimensions of the report of "The result is the phenomenon of
performance bad transitional authority look scary and equivalents
dysfunctional, where performance has led to the expansion of the control
of armed groups and to increase its influence and arm, while increased
the absence of the state and the weakness of its performance, featured
political and social entities cropped Alojnah no effect. "
Violent groups and the exchange of roles to weaken the state:
Turning the report for the second factor, which led to a negative
situation and risk for the transition in Yemen, saying, "The expansion
of the armed militias of sectarian represented by the Houthis in the
north of the country, and it continues to impose a reality by force of
arms through the inclusion of Imran and large parts of Sana'a
Governorate and the area around the capital province along Saada
controlled three years ago, as a strike most dangerous transition
process, where those serious and bold move encouraged other violent
groups linked to al-Qaeda and supporters of its law to return again to
appear in attempts to control the areas in Abyan and Shabwa, white and
Hadramout. "
The report said "there is a clear formula for violence in Yemen
interact edges with some of the more absent the state, and the scene is
repeated continuously, while the Houthis, who controlled the northern
city of Saada fully in 2011, al-Qaeda took control of the southern Abyan
province in the same date, and this year, after the overthrow of the
Houthis province Imran and camps, al-Qaida operations increased violence
in an attempt to overthrow the Hadramout oil east of the country. "
He Unit report strategies and future visions in the dimensions of the
center to the third factor which made the transition process in a state
of danger is the economic factor, saying that "the living situation bad
and rising poverty, unemployment and increased economic burdens that
multiplied as a result of government measures to take the step removal
of subsidies on petroleum products, without rates undertaking any
measures to improve the economic environment and the fight against
corruption and to bring former officials and current accused of
corruption to the courts, and not to control the black smuggling
markets, and not to fight sabotage of oil installations and power lines
gangs, all that loose citizen confidence in the state and so easy to
violence to attract and recruit many Yemenis groups, which What is
worried about the security situation in Yemen, an indicator in the
coming days. "
According to the report, the external role confused is the fourth
factor that encouraged violence groups to expand, adding that "the
Security Council of the ten countries sponsoring the initiative Gulf did
not move procedures practical and realistic stressful against those in
charge of the transition process to punish the armed groups, and the
international community and major powers turned to the observers
direction of escalating violence in Yemen, especially after obtaining
the developments in Syria, Lebanon, Iraq, Libya, Egypt and Gaza City,
Palestine. "
The
report predicted that the case of external withdrawal stemming from a
state of alert and concern is a new map of the area will impact on the
Yemeni situation. "
State drop scenarios:
Revealed Center report dimensions for security information clearly
refers to "the existence of the movement to overthrow the state by some
violent groups through multiple scenarios of the most important scenario
projection capital directly and imposing reality by force of arms, or
coup scenario targeting the president and government supervisors of the
transition process, or scenario rebellion and overthrow cities The
provinces and camps, or a scenario based on a popular exit through the
exploitation of growing discontent because of the deteriorating living
conditions and the performance of the service of the state. "
The report said, "The field and the military situation Houthi Movement
armed them more violent groups candidate to lead the overthrow the
state, and most of these groups benefit and preparation, after dropping
to Imran moved to do wars intermittent in the vicinity of Sana ' a, Jawf
oil province, in conjunction with the conduct of demonstrations
downtown to review its popularity and creating a state anxiety and
osteoporosis, and a breakthrough in the civil and military levels as a
prelude to control. "
"We have begun planning to overthrow the capital, and Ksmoha to
security boxes, and set up checkpoints day after day, which increases
whenever the rate of storing weapons and recruiting new militants and
increased space presence has increased."
The report on the dimensions of the "scenario projection Sanaa may be
opposed to the expansion of the movement Huthi outside the capital
scenarios taken from the grounds of self-defense against an imaginary
enemy civilian or military input to launch armed raids, but this time it
may be through the use of state to compete with al-Qaida and to
contribute to the drag its members to carry out operations in the
capital, and then the emergence of the Houthi movement as a
movement-saving escape from any responsibility. "
The report emphasized that President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi papers in
dealing with the Houthis weakens day after day, whenever leaving the
Houthis opportunity expansion and arms, without the use of any process
pressure on them to impose an end to violence and leaving arms and
integrate into political action.
Narrow opportunities:
As predicted dimensions plunge Yemen into civil war report may lead to
rupture of the country in the event of dropping violent groups of the
capital as an image for the rest of the state, it is pointed out that
the rescue Yemen opportunities may also narrowed, and there may not be
the only use of Chapter VII force a solution through a process military
in the framework of an international coalition against al-Qaeda and
Shi'ite sites to prevent the collapse of the country.
The report considered attempt president involve the Houthis in the
government may be the last attempt to defuse the war, and realize the
dream of the transition to civilian state, but added, "a number of
measures needed to prevent the use of participation as an adjunct to
gain time and power to achieve control of the state by the Houthis. "
He stressed that any approval for participation in the government by
the Houthis without nominated leaders responsible of the Movement for
the positions, which gives them the president, such as going to choose a
civilian figures from the forces allied to the Houthis, or without
making concessions from the movement Kedzlam Amran and Saada, the
authority of the state, and without heavy weapons delivery at least
Kabda good faith, is a time to continue to buy them from the case of
military escalation and to prepare for the zero hour to overthrow the
state .
The report suggested that the rush of the Security Council to oversee
the national reconciliation adopted by the President of the Republic
initiative with eroded the limit option ten, which contained a code of
honor includes renounce war and delivery of heavy weapons to the state
and stop the calls inciting sectarian, ethnic, regional, stressing that
this initiative, which is considered the national dialogue output
steady, may is the last attempt for the success of the transition in
Yemen.
A
report by the dimensions of "the sole guarantor for not bombing Houthi
situation and go further than they went to him to overthrow the state,
is the extent of possession of a draft national strategy stems from the
interests of Yemen, where he and the collapse of the country is not
conducive to the control of the Houthis as they think, but rather to
fighting and devastating wars, "he said. "In If undergo
Houthis to the interests of the Republic's Islamic Iranian regional
countries which are not interested now only a continuation of the series
of confusion to cover a sudden decline in influence in the region as a
result of the inevitable fought marginal battles led to the weakening
influence in more than one country, the Houthis may fall in the series
line Revolutionary Guard, which was adopted on Options decisive force in
Iraq, Syria and Lebanon have been repeated in Yemen. "
He
pointed unit strategies report in the dimensions of the center to the
state of decline of Iran in the region, driven by the search for a new
influence through Yemen's most dangerous region pose a threat to
regional and international security, and will not find a better
alternative to them to create a mini-state or state in the south of the
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia controls the oil areas in the desert East and
neighboring Gulf countries and ports in the west coast with the control
the Strait of Bab el Mandeb most important international oil passages
located between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden. "
She united the survey in the center of the dimensions of the studies
and research in a brief report that they spotted the killing of nearly
400 of Houthi gunmen and about 50 soldiers from the army and security
forces since the start of the fighting in Amran.
The report Unit survey of the Center for the dimensions of the studies:
About 30 soldiers from the private security forces were killed in more
than a surprise attack, but more violent and loss in military circles is
the attack on the central prison in Amran, which killed 25 soldiers,
and more than 35 Houthi gunmen.
He pointed out that the high death toll among the Houthis attributed to
several reasons, most importantly, take the Houthis policy attack on
military sites, as opposed to the survival of the military forces in the
case of defense only in their positions, and the use of new recruits
and trainees are adequately trained, and the most important reasons that
the majority motivated in battles They are recruits from children.
The report said "in the last two days Houthi gunmen trainees pay some
of them officers and soldiers linked to regular military units have been
monitoring a number of them were killed in the ranks of the Houthis
Bamran during the battles."
Unit survey report in the dimensions of the center predicted several
scenarios of the war there, the most important scenario expand the war
that Houthis believes it could lead to the high ceiling of the political
gains and it may lead to a new alliance with President Hadi guarantees
them a political and military situation strong in the state, the report
confirmed that the This scenario will not Gla achieved victories in the
event of a quality to them
And the second scenario, the report pointed out that the Houthis are
unaware of him and assured not receiving, a scenario that the
announcement of the sanctions committee established by the Security
Council in accordance with the decision (2140) as inhibiting the
political transition in Yemen group, which enters in accordance with the
international sanctions that might include support guide military
strikes by the Yemeni army or by the international community.
The third scenario is the most predictable where moving Houthi group to
change its confrontation of clashes with the Yemeni army clashes with
tribal and political views of the option, and enable them to accept
offers of ensuring political gains without the delivery of arms and
trying to repeat the experience of Hezbollah, which swallow the state
from the inside.
The fourth scenario, referring to the possibility of a setback for the
military defeat of the Houthis, either through military operations or
through the international community sanctions, but this scenario was
assumed to accept the Houthis to give up their arms and integrate into
political action, according to the report, the probabilities of a weak
check this scenario.
The report emphasized that aviation entry in the war refers to the
anxiety of the danger of continuing attempts Houthis to seize dangerous
military sites such as Mount Aldan, who oversees the Amran province and
part of the capital Sanaa, it's also a clear message for the Houthis and
the international community that the war in Amran is with the state and
not with military or political faction.
Warned dimensions Center for Studies and Research of state failure
could threaten the political transition in Yemen, pointing to political
and economic factors reflected on the security and military situation
and contributed to the development phase transition in Yemen dangerous.
A report for the unity, security and military strategies in place, "The
situation in the country deteriorated more since the beginning of 2014,
has exceeded what is known as the risks associated with the process of
transition, to a state of political and quasi- collapse of the failure
of the state led to the negative repercussions notably the further
expansion of the armed groups and the rise of assassinations and attacks
of violence and terrorism and crisis rate Economic ".
He said the security situation report for the first quarter in 2014,
"had been the will of the change of the status of disability began to
retain the leadership of the former regime controlling the most
important state institutions, and then the exclusion of the youth
revolution of participation in political decision-making, leading to the
marginalization of civil and military professional personalities
pro-revolution, and the end of the status of the confusion of the
political system to participate in the composition of the government. "
The report and the number of some of the political and economic
factors, which he described as being helped to guide the transition to
the prospect of failure, including "lack of trust between political
factions in the government, and the impact of the legacy of past
conflicts in decision-making, and fears of exclusion or control, and
attempts to promote personal and regional influence in the state, and
the placement decisions strengthen the influence of the state of
political blackmail and balances regional and sectarian, slow
restructuring process in the military and security establishment, and
the continuation of the rampant corruption in the state and the lack of
transparency and accountability, and penetrate violent groups to system
state and targeting civilian and military facilities and oil pipelines
and energy. "
The report warned of the danger of armed groups on the transition
process, he said, "has become such groups possess small armies
organization and mechanisms of a combat heavy and sophisticated weapons
and the quality of, and intervention in the influence of large areas in
Saada and Abyan, white and Shabwa, Hadramout, Marib and Al-Jawf. "
Turning unit security and military studies at the Center for the
dimensions report detailed statistics on violence at military
institutions and military assassinations, and aircraft operations groups
attacks (Waldron) US drone.
He said, "about 175 military killed in assassinations and armed attack
by violent groups on the points and military institutions since the
beginning of this year, though the assassinations of military
particularly in intelligence officers killed about 25 military during
the same period, approximately 15 of whom were assassinated in Southern
provinces of the most important of Hadramout and Aden. "
And
the victims of the attacks on the points and camps have resulted -
according to the report - to the killing of about 150 military .70 of
them were killed in armed operations against the army in Hadramout, with
dead soldiers stood in the Huthi attacks against Camps in Al-Jawf,
Amran, more than 15 British soldiers , most of them after the Security Council's Decision.
"The increase in attacks against the military in the south means that
al-Qaeda and armed movements are taking part in the killings, and that
the investigations into the assassinations led to the leader arrested in
southern movement close to Ali Salem and killed an intelligence cell
was part of a cell devices regional intelligence working on the
liquidation of officers responsible Intelligence in Hadramout. "
Unmanned aircraft operations, which he described the war forced the
report said, "It came after Al-Qaeda threats and other armed groups
stormed the capital Sanaa and major cities and threatened to carry out
attacks against the West."
He estimated the dimensions of Centre for Studies death toll from the
al-Qaeda report in attacks (Waldron) since the beginning of 2014 about
96 people were killed in about 18 attacks, and said that the heaviest of
it took place on 19 and 20 April , where about 68 of al-Qaeda members,
including leaders killed in about 7 attacks training centers in white
and Abyan.
He pointed out that previous raids targeted the central and eastern
provinces of the country, and that the majority of the raids of the
share of Abyan by 7 raids and then about 4 raids Marib and Hadramout and
Al-Jawf raids by each raid and quality in white.
The report stated, "Although the drone strikes are stronger this year,
but at least the victims among the civilian and only 6 civilian deaths
are recorded in raids in the first quarter of this year."
Yemeni government report recommended avoiding the legal and moral
controversy regarding the use of this method in the murder being
violated Yemeni sovereignty and human rights, and suggested that "Yemeni
agreement US subject strikes program in Yemen, Yemeni decision and
verification of information intelligence to the identity of the target
and get a warrant for any process precision targeting Yemeni citizens or
Foreigners threaten the national security of Yemen. "
The report emphasized that attempts to eliminate one group violence,
such as al-Qaeda is difficult in light of the presence of other armed
groups impose their control and expand the force of arms on the
sovereignty of the state account, pointing out that the integrated
violent groups and derive each group strength of the survival of the
other group and the absence of state before that.
He said the implementation of the national dialogue outputs and
Security Council resolution 2140 in support of the change and the judge
sanctions under Chapter VII of the Markulai political transition in
Yemen as "sufficient for the success of the transition process if the
political will."
The report pointed to the regional and international factors
contributed to abandon the Gulf for the responsibility of economic
support for the success of the transition in Yemen, led by
Saudi-American dispute over rapprochement with Iran and the conflict in
Syria and the dispute Gulf Gulf on the coup in Egypt and extensibility
striking the arms of Iran in Yemen issues.
He stressed the necessity of activating the diplomatic tools to
reassure Gulf neighbors, and extend the influence of the state and its
sovereignty over its entire territory and activation control, integrity
and transparency mechanisms in the state administration and activation
of youth and political participation in decision- making and the
protection of the state of the incursion of armed violence groups and
groups which, under any circumstances.
Unit security and military studies report on the dimensions and
stressed that "the growing influence of armed groups and an increase in
attacks against the military will lead to the fragmentation of the
military establishment and its collapse, which inevitably leads to the
collapse of the state. "
"We have to Yemen avoid collapse that will lead Yemen to threatened
regional and international security case scenario, and continue only
scenario, a scenario of change and the success of political peaceful
transition of power and to ensure fair and democratic elections are
contested by political programs and not through prevail and force of
arms. "
Status
Report 2013 issued by the Center for the dimensions of the studies and
research confirmed that the next year in 2014 in articular and
decisively in Yemen, and put it in front of two scenarios only, namely
the success of the peaceful transition of power, and bring about change,
and start phase of democratic transition or going to fail and go back
to square zero and sliding Yemen to chaos.
That the report said Yemen has lived this year, conditions Political 
,
Economic and security as Closely related to Political, Economic and
security scene Deteriorating Since 2 011 before the revolution That
Toppled President Ali Abdullah Saleh's regime by.
,
Economic and security as Closely related to Political, Economic and
security scene Deteriorating Since 2 011 before the revolution That
Toppled President Ali Abdullah Saleh's regime by.
He
described in 2013 as a confusing year for followers of the status of
Yemen Because of the quality of the events That mixed securities and
opacity, who Accompanied the scene by the state and the Actors in the
scene.
The report is confirmed. the dimensions of the Gulf Initiative aimed "to put a political solution to Yemen after the revolution of 2011, through a peaceful and secure transmission works on stability political lead to stop the security and economic deterioration during the transitional phase, which Yemen is still going through now."
The report is confirmed. the dimensions of the Gulf Initiative aimed "to put a political solution to Yemen after the revolution of 2011, through a peaceful and secure transmission works on stability political lead to stop the security and economic deterioration during the transitional phase, which Yemen is still going through now."
Partial change:
On
the most important achievements of the initiative Gulf, report
dimensions "Many of the results of the Gulf initiative politically,
militarily and economically, said, achieved in part the most important
election of a consensus president to manage the transition, and the
formation of a national unity government of political parties in the
government and the opposition, and a conference for national dialogue to
include various political currents and is political actors and
influential in the country to reach compromise solutions on major issues
most important issue Saada South issue and the system of Government and
the Constitution as well as Issues related to the Demands of the youth
revolution of 2 011, color: such as transitional justice and civil
state. "
He added, "It was the most important achievements of President Hadi and the Government of Reconciliation That was Partially, the unification of the army and restructured, and this led to the success of the army in cooperation with the tribes in the retrieval of Abyan from al-Qaeda, and stop the fighting and remove Almtars and dismissal of military and security leaders from their posts accused of human rights violations against peaceful demonstrators, and the movement of changes in political and military figures to restore some balance to the civil state apparatus and the military, and to stop the partial security and economic deterioration, and led to the stability of the local currency , the return of the basic state services, albeit slow, and the return of the windows of international cooperation with donors. "
He added, "It was the most important achievements of President Hadi and the Government of Reconciliation That was Partially, the unification of the army and restructured, and this led to the success of the army in cooperation with the tribes in the retrieval of Abyan from al-Qaeda, and stop the fighting and remove Almtars and dismissal of military and security leaders from their posts accused of human rights violations against peaceful demonstrators, and the movement of changes in political and military figures to restore some balance to the civil state apparatus and the military, and to stop the partial security and economic deterioration, and led to the stability of the local currency , the return of the basic state services, albeit slow, and the return of the windows of international cooperation with donors. "
The report stressed that a good step in the restoration of the
sovereignty of the country and the formulation of foreign policy path
for the president's announcement of Socotra province and gone to
diversify its international economic, political and military alliances,
through its interests and not through dependency .
Features failure:
In the other direction, the report describes the features of
shortcomings and failures that marred the political, security and
economic situation during the reign of President Hadi and the Government
of National Reconciliation, described the performance as a worsening
especially with regard to youth issues and the revolution in 2011, said:
"The government and the president has been unable to find a prompt and
satisfactory solutions to treat the wounded and to compensate the
families of martyrs and the release of detainees and find out where the
enforced disappearance and re-separated from joined the revolution and
open a full investigation of the events of murder against peaceful
demonstrators and to identify criminal suspects and politicians behind
these incidents and bring them to justice in parallel with the
initiation of reconciliation and transitional justice. "
Despite the report, referring to the case of open war between President
Hadi and supporters of the change on the one hand and order the
previous groups of violence destined to overthrow the state on the other
hand, it is seen that features palaces also manifested itself in "not
to involve young people in the political decision-making during the
transition phase, and that the changes in Some government facilities are
not up to the launch of the name change on what happened to her level,
as there has been no change in some of the most important government
institutions such as the State, which was reflected in the performance,
there was a continuation of the flow of African refugees, and an
increase in external interference in Yemen in parallel with the
increasing emergence of groups local association of regional and
international ambitions, turning Yemen into an arena intelligence
international conflict and compete. "
The report pointed to "high assassinations, military and civilian
figures accident rate, and increase the abduction of foreigners hostage
incidents to finance the activities of the figures or local groups, and
to increase and the continued flow of arms shipments from the coast, and
do not show any signs of the dismantling of armed groups, and not to
make any measures to prevent the alliance of the former regime leaders
with violent groups in the creation and cut off the power and oil lines
and the targeting of the camps and the distribution of arms and stretch
toward the major cities of security problems. "
The report stated, "As far as there was abandoning the Gulf of
neighborhood economic responsibility for the success of the initiative,
however, there is a failure to persuade them to play a positive role by
turning off the funding and support the views of groups used to obstruct
the dialogue, and to stop the legal proceedings led to the expulsion of
thousands of Yemeni workers through a difficult stage pass by Yemen. "
The report criticized what he called a lack of transparency and the
spread of corruption from the next gate quotas in government, and
corruption in the selection of members of the national dialogue
conference under the pretext of independents.
A case report of 2013 issued by the dimensions of the center "will
result in a failure to achieve the demands of the Yemeni people,
particularly young people, to give justifications for the views of
regional and local groups to increase polarization among Yemenis to
achieve expansion and control, and that the survival of the current
situation without significant changes will make Yemen vulnerable to
imports external vibrations ".
Vision for the future:
On the processors a report dimensions vision for the future, and
stressed, "The success of the political and democratic transformation,
is not dependent on the outcome of the only national dialogue
conference, but local, regional and international factors, some of these
factors benefit from the continued compatibility case within the
national dialogue conference and some will remain gateway for local and
international bidding to achieve the interests of non-national ".
The report added, "the most important success of the next phase
indicators accept non-partisan groups located inside and outside the
national dialogue and political integration and the establishment
parties have to give up their arms if the armed hand, and the arrival of
the national dialogue components to see a consensus on major issues
without collision with the identity and the fabric of the Yemeni
society, and activate transitional justice and reparation and release of
detainees and hidden forcibly treat the wounded and to compensate the
families of the martyrs, and provide opportunities for young people to
participate in political decision-making, and to make progress touched
citizen in solving economic and security emergency problems, and
activation of new sources of income weaken the dependence on the outside
in parallel with the weakening of external interference threatens
security, independence and sovereignty of Yemen, and a review of foreign
policy and make changes to ensure that policy keeps interest without
prejudice to the principles of the Republic of Yemen and its
sovereignty, and the development of state sponsors of the initiative
Gulf countries for humanitarian and moral responsibilities for the
success of the initiative through the political and economic support for
the new system, and to stop the flow of funds to destinations
obstructive dialogue, and review procedures Legal, which led to the
expulsion of Yemeni labor or discrimination violated the rights of the
Yemeni citizen abroad, and the involvement of the United Nations and the
UN Security Council to take punitive measures against countries that
violate the sovereignty of Yemen and support groups hinder
democratization or support projects segmentation Yemen, and the
dismantling of armed violence groups through dealing means commensurate
with each group separately, and the means to not only security but also
development and political as well, and cooperation with international
institutions in the development of solutions to ease the flow of arms
and refugees to Yemen's problems through supported logistically plan
enables the state to control the coast, land and sea ports, and promote
the rights and freedoms, and provide a new media approach is transparent
to inform people about the many political, economic and security
conditions, and activating sophisticated mechanisms to help the police
and the judiciary in the fight against crime and justice, and the
establishment of the Constitution and the laws of the window strengthen
democracy and encourage political and intellectual diversity and check
social justice and ensure that the civil state, and go for a referendum
and democratic elections take into account the political transition and
what you need partnerships to make it a success. "
Harbingers of change:
The report dimensions stressed that the fate of Yemen belted how to
achieve the goals of the Gulf initiative, said that the Yemeni scene
after the 2011 pillow case of semi-stability after the election of
President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi early 2012, and the formation of ES
government, half of the ruling party, and half of the political
opposition.
The report also pointed to the heavy legacy inherited from the previous regime Hadi most important armed violent groups like al-Qaeda armed southern movement and Houthis and stream said that his tribal attributes military lost interest was provided by the former regime in return for certain services.
The report also pointed to the heavy legacy inherited from the previous regime Hadi most important armed violent groups like al-Qaeda armed southern movement and Houthis and stream said that his tribal attributes military lost interest was provided by the former regime in return for certain services.
Through a comparison reviewed the status of 2013 some failures stations
report during the benefit of the rule, which led in its entirety to the
emergence of insurgencies Kalihuthein in the north of the country in
2004, and the separatist movement in southern Yemen in 2007, he said,
"between the scenes there was a third scene interacts with the continued
weakness and deterioration progressive state, in 2009, Yemen has turned
into a source of regional and international concern after the
announcement of al-Qaeda in Saudi Arabia to merge with Yemen branch to
form a regional organization under the name of (Al-Qaeda in the Arabian
Peninsula). "
According to the report, "with such developments, the economic scene and then make experts warn that Yemen is on the verge of becoming a failed state, and was accompanied by a bad political scene, began to deteriorate considerably after the 2006 elections presidential in which the former president has shown determination to monopolize power, and entered Yemen's political stalemate after a complete break between the JMP opposition and the ruling People's Congress at the time, and reached its zenith with the former regime went to go solo in the parliamentary elections without modifying the constraint record and without safeguards for the integrity of the process in 2009 and 2010, even young people took to the squares in 2011 in the context of the Arab Spring revolutions that toppled the peaceful systems in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, which has increased the strength of casualties in peaceful demonstrations. "
The report pointed to the absence of political performance in 2011, with accompany deteriorating economic situation, which led to a complete absence of basic services for Yemenis, until he reached the international organizations to warn of hunger experienced by Yemen in addition to the absence of electricity and gasoline with high essential commodity prices, and the arrival of the state to the state inability to deliver staff salaries and management of state institutions.
According to the report, "with such developments, the economic scene and then make experts warn that Yemen is on the verge of becoming a failed state, and was accompanied by a bad political scene, began to deteriorate considerably after the 2006 elections presidential in which the former president has shown determination to monopolize power, and entered Yemen's political stalemate after a complete break between the JMP opposition and the ruling People's Congress at the time, and reached its zenith with the former regime went to go solo in the parliamentary elections without modifying the constraint record and without safeguards for the integrity of the process in 2009 and 2010, even young people took to the squares in 2011 in the context of the Arab Spring revolutions that toppled the peaceful systems in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, which has increased the strength of casualties in peaceful demonstrations. "
The report pointed to the absence of political performance in 2011, with accompany deteriorating economic situation, which led to a complete absence of basic services for Yemenis, until he reached the international organizations to warn of hunger experienced by Yemen in addition to the absence of electricity and gasoline with high essential commodity prices, and the arrival of the state to the state inability to deliver staff salaries and management of state institutions.
The report concluded by noting that the past years were not much better
off than the current year, which made going to change like a painful
surgical process should emerge from the nation-building has been absent
throughout the rule of the former regime.
Fears for the Houthis chemicals from Syria under the cover of the perfume trade
The coup plan was behind the wars Houthi random failure
Expectations to declare victory in front Syria open a branch in Saada
Stronger scenarios is to enter the Houthis in a long war of attrition
Riyadh went to buy a secret nuclear program of Pakistan grew differences with Washington
The continued integration of the war could lead to storm the besieged camp there and looted
Strategic
dimensions of the report by the Center for Strategic Studies warned
Yemen sliding into civil war if the state did not impose its sovereignty
over all the provinces, and stop internal wars strongly and state
sovereignty.
In summary report titled (b Dammaj war .. black hole), the report said that the continuation of al-Huthi in arms and open fronts wars will lead to "obstruct the peaceful transition of power and the failure of the democratic transition, and the emergence of armed movements, radical and tribal new control over the part of the areas of Yemen leads State relaxant to grip and weaknesses, and the expansion of al-Qaeda and win new supporters, and become Saada sectarian conflict and regionally, which will make the Yemen Square regional and international conflicts region, Yemen has become a threat to regional and international security. "
In summary report titled (b Dammaj war .. black hole), the report said that the continuation of al-Huthi in arms and open fronts wars will lead to "obstruct the peaceful transition of power and the failure of the democratic transition, and the emergence of armed movements, radical and tribal new control over the part of the areas of Yemen leads State relaxant to grip and weaknesses, and the expansion of al-Qaeda and win new supporters, and become Saada sectarian conflict and regionally, which will make the Yemen Square regional and international conflicts region, Yemen has become a threat to regional and international security. "
The
report added, "the opportunity now favorable to rework a national
perspective of the state, and the imposition of prestige and extend its
sovereignty over the entire Yemeni soil, and build a state accommodate
all Yemenis," adding that "no justification for the continued absence of
the state will increase the expansion of small projects sectarianism
and regionalism, racism and tribalism."
The
report revealed that the coup plan failed to President Abed Rabbo
Mansour Hadi and shared by Houthis was behind the random wars that they
do in Saada and abroad, and "Houthi movement occurred in the trap of the
adventures of its leaders, while the place chose the wrong time to
implement such a war against Salafi minority said In controlled by them
province, in an important time marks the end of the national dialogue
conference, which is sponsored by the international community for the
success of political peaceful transition of power in accordance with the
Gulf initiative. "
"With the
Military campaign organization similar to Those campaigns Carried out by
the armies of the Countries Carried out by the Houthis Against Slvei
integration Saada, open Houthis Themselves black hole That Absorbs all
Military overworked."
The report pointed to the party That has the agenda of the bombing of the war in integration through review power equation, which is a strong party and the attacker is the owner of the agenda of the battle, not the weak and defender party. "
The report Emphasized That the main Objective of targeting Houthis Salafis in Dammaj in Saada in northern Yemen is the failure of the national dialogue and escape from the Responsibilities and Obligations of outputs That Impose them, re-Saada of state Sovereignty, and delivery of heavy and medium weapons state, and the renunciation of violence and integration into political action. "
The report pointed to the party That has the agenda of the bombing of the war in integration through review power equation, which is a strong party and the attacker is the owner of the agenda of the battle, not the weak and defender party. "
The report Emphasized That the main Objective of targeting Houthis Salafis in Dammaj in Saada in northern Yemen is the failure of the national dialogue and escape from the Responsibilities and Obligations of outputs That Impose them, re-Saada of state Sovereignty, and delivery of heavy and medium weapons state, and the renunciation of violence and integration into political action. "
"There
is a secondary objectives of this war is to" give the sectarian
dimension to the wars, and the elimination of the Salafists inside for
full-time Front tribes rally around the capital, Sanaa, and make Saada
capital free of liability, and raising the ceiling of demands for
admission to the outputs of the dialogue in the event of their return. "
And
reviewed the report of the strategic dimensions of the factors that
help to achieve the Houthi movement goals in its military actions, and
dividing them into domestic political factors, such as the exploitation
of near the end of the term of President Hadi, and the military to get a
strategic weapon of burdensome state camps, and logistics to get
financial support from arms dealers and smuggling who are currently
active In light of the weakness of the state, and tribal factors is to
neutralize the powerful tribes through wars for the purpose of military
expansion, and the sectarian factor is to win the sympathy of the
Hashemite family and Zaidi and regulation reduces or limits the Sunni
expansion.
The
regional factors that leaned upon Houthis in its war against the
Salafists Bdmaj - by report- said, "considering that war is part of the
Saudi-Iranian conflict in the region, and the exploitation of
American-Iranian rapprochement, and silence, and win the sympathy of
Iran through its notification that opponents sectarians, and the
exploitation of differences between Saudi Arabia and America and between
Saudi Arabia and the Yemeni government and temporary rapprochement with
the Kingdom of neutralization, as well as busy as some regional and
international powers to play the role of a scalable stream of political
Islam, which form the core of the Arab Spring. "
For
the power equation on the ground in the integration of War chapter of
the report of local, regional and international powers map in this war,
dimensions, and pointed out that the Houthi movement has about 10
thousand fighters and control of the province of Saada, along with
disagreements with Houthi leaders have supporters like Mohammed Abdel
Azim al-Huthi and Abdullah Eida Alersami, and Yahya Hussein.
In
the religious map, the report said, "summoned the Houthi war in
integration, the emergence of new jihadist Salafist armed groups as well
as directed some elements of al-Qaeda, as rumored, and the
establishment of a new battle fronts."
And
map the tribal pointed to the formation of a new tribal alliance
anti-Houthi movement, and it aims through it to create chaos to ensure
weaken the state and shook the confidence of citizens and then the
military expansion at the expense of possibly shot down.
The
report confirmed that the dimensions of the Houthis were able after
taking control of Saada eliminate the role of the tribe, and trespassed
against all norms and tribal traditions, and the longer their abuses of
women, and have carried out the assassination and attempts to filter
influential tribal symbols inside and outside Saada.
In
the Political map, the report said That al-Huthi grew on the General
People's Congress party, Which Atke on tribal symbols and base weak
account, Which led Bkiedath Either alliance with the Houthis or hunt if
they supported the Struggle Against the idea.
The report pointed out that the Reform Party a large popular base among youth Saada, doubled for refusing to war and not to be drawn to it and its members not to carry arms against the Houthis, despite the strong trend of narrowing them through arrests, torture and exile of some of his youth campaigns.
The report pointed out that the Reform Party a large popular base among youth Saada, doubled for refusing to war and not to be drawn to it and its members not to carry arms against the Houthis, despite the strong trend of narrowing them through arrests, torture and exile of some of his youth campaigns.
Military
map in the report discussed the military force to Houthi group and his
supporters and military force to Manahiah Salafists and tribal and
military power of the state in Saada.
The
report said, "The Houthis have weapons of some are not owned by the
Yemeni military strategy, pointing out that there are seven sources of
arms Huthi include: smuggling and grab the camps, and the purchase of
ammunition from the arms market, buying loyalties army stores and
looting officers, and coverage usually is an accident fire to stores
looted, and deals a contract with the military and civilian leaders in
the former regime and to obtain weapons quality disappeared from the
Republican Guard dissolved camps, and manufacturing military, and trade
of pesticides and chemical fertilizers That go into the manufacture of
Explosives. "
A report by the dimensions of "The Tribes have light and medium Weapons, but they are Able to Continuation of ailments Huthi thru the control of the main battle fronts color: such as fronts integration and Epaulette and Huth, Al Jawf, Hajjah and Harf Sufyan. "
And the state weapon in Saada is confirmed. That the report there are 8 Yemeni army Camps in Saada, but Unable to Perform important roles to Besiege Houthi her, warning That, if Military Confrontations Between the Houthis and Salafists Continued Could it lead to the exposure of Those Camps looted by Conflicting.
"These Camps are not Able to any Military balance with the Houthis Occur, Mainly Because of the Camps in and around Saada, trapping, and That some Camps have become almost free from force human, and some of the leaders of these camps on the relationship Houthis, others looted.
A report by the dimensions of "The Tribes have light and medium Weapons, but they are Able to Continuation of ailments Huthi thru the control of the main battle fronts color: such as fronts integration and Epaulette and Huth, Al Jawf, Hajjah and Harf Sufyan. "
And the state weapon in Saada is confirmed. That the report there are 8 Yemeni army Camps in Saada, but Unable to Perform important roles to Besiege Houthi her, warning That, if Military Confrontations Between the Houthis and Salafists Continued Could it lead to the exposure of Those Camps looted by Conflicting.
"These Camps are not Able to any Military balance with the Houthis Occur, Mainly Because of the Camps in and around Saada, trapping, and That some Camps have become almost free from force human, and some of the leaders of these camps on the relationship Houthis, others looted.
Confirmed
report dimensions that of the reasons that deviate camps is the lack of
confidence and the weakness of the combat doctrine of belonging these
camps, and the lack of arming and training of these camps, as well as
conflicts between the camps, the leaders, and the demobilization of
soldiers believed they were not loyal to Houthi, or give them a long
vacation. "
In
a geographical map accept the report pointed to attempts to centralize
the Houthis on the only mountain ocean Bdmaj and which is controlled by
the Salafists, the highest mountain there called sparkling, where poses a
threat to the power of al-Huthi besieged for integration, and can it
target the task Rahban area of the Houthis being leaders in the field
for the Houthis center and predominantly Hashemite family.
The
report pointed to the control of the Houthis full control over all of
Saada but their supporters have much in only 50% of the districts of
Sa'ada, such as the ancient city of Saada and Rahban, Sahar and Hidan
and the Dhahian and large parts of the legs and rewarding and yellow
where the integration area stronghold Salafis are located, while active
competitors in the districts Stuffing and Razih apparently and Shada and
alarm and immersion and Qataber and epaulette area where there are
tribal gatherings and Salafism.
The
report went on to control the Houthis port states with Saudi Arabia is
the outlet boxes, while opponents of the tribal militants and Salafists
dominated the international spots port with Saudi Arabia and three
internal ports on by Imran Sanaa on Hollow Road and on the path towards
Malaheet Midi.
About
the equation of regional and international in Houthis in Saada war
strategic dimensions report pointed out that Iran and its allies to
provide logistical support and weapons experts, money and media,
pointing out that many of the Huthi files are, however, Hezbollah now,
being in charge of the plans, training, funding and implementation, and
divide Yemen Triple roadmap supports the Houthis in the north, led by
Abdul-Malik, and in the center supports an armed entity in Taiz, led by
Sultan Acommai, and in the south supports armed southern movement of the
former vice president Ali Salem. "
According
to the dimensions "There estates Iranian, Iraqi and under the
supervision of a structured and formal than destinations in the two
countries provide the money for the Houthis and which activates the
device intelligence Iranian report, pointing to expectations with the
help of Bashar al- Assad's regime for the Houthis certain types of
weapons and possibly enter very small amounts of materials used in
chemical weapons across the cover Syrian perfume trade that flowed to
Yemen since 2011 through the Lebanese and Iranians, Syrians and Yemenis
linked to Hezbollah. "
And
Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states report touched for the support of
Saudi Arabia states and the Salafis before the revolution in 2011 to
fight the Houthis, then Saudi rapprochement Huthi through border
protection agreement in exchange for five million Saudi riyals and 187
thousand liters per month and 500 visa for the Houthis to Saudi Arabia.
The
report stated: "There Shiite seminaries in Bahrain, Oman and Kuwait
provides substantial financial support for the Houthis as there is
communication between the Yemeni and Saudi Shiites in the south and east
of the kingdom, and through this communication flow of arms to the Gulf
states. "
The
report considered that Saudi Arabia sees the rapprochement with the
Houthis achieve tactical interests, including "pull the rug from under
the feet of an opponent rival Iran, and it is an appropriate message to
Washington after disagreements with them because of America's retreat
from the hit Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria and rapprochement with
Iran, in response to the recent US position on cut to the authority of
the coup in Egypt in military aid, and the strong rejection by the
United States to buy Saudi Arabia's secret nuclear program of Pakistan .
"
The
report also said that Saudi Arabia believes that it is possible to use
the Houthis to impose their will on the President Abed Rabbo Mansour
Hadi and the weakening of the Reform Party, and that they may benefit
from convergence in penetrating the Houthis and beat them through the
Salafi movements jihad, especially since there are leaked information
about the announcement of opening victory Front in Syria Branch in Saada
to overwork Iran, which could lead to a Hezbollah official opening of
the branch and turn into a hotbed of Saada regional conflict similar to
what is happening in Syria.
For
the United States, the report said, "America consider the Houthis as a
political group cover sectarian aims to reach the rule is not intended
to disturb the internal security of America, and therefore condone armed
by the crimes, nor care about the military Ptusahm on the ground other
than al-Qaeda or any other Sunni militant group, but see Can
understanding with the group to achieve its many interests including,
ease the tension between Washington and Tehran, and to create a balance
with the Sunni Reform Party big is popular , and survival anxiety Gulf
Ocean to the continued flow of oil in exchange for protection, and the
movements of sectarian Huthi benefit in assembling the base and
facilitate hit, or increase and maintain a justification military and
intelligence intervention in Yemen, which is one of the most important
Countries in the world Which has Militarily, Politically and
Economically Strategic location, Washington wants the Military to stay
in it. "
Russia stressed That "Russia's most important ally of Iran sponsors of movement Houthi in Yemen, Benefiting Houthis of Russians Benefit Indirectly thru Iran in particular with regard to access to certain types of weapons used in wars such as the integration. "
Russia stressed That "Russia's most important ally of Iran sponsors of movement Houthi in Yemen, Benefiting Houthis of Russians Benefit Indirectly thru Iran in particular with regard to access to certain types of weapons used in wars such as the integration. "
On
China, the report said "China is dealing with Iran buys its oil local
Chinese currency and not challenging the euro or the dollar currency,
which makes Iran is taking advantage of those funds deposited in Chinese
banks, whereupon discharged through money laundering operations, and
are converted commercial goods for leaders In its allied armed movements
Kalihuthein in Yemen, then sold cheap perfume and money go sales in the
purchase of weapons and implementation of plans, strategies and
financing of such wars. "
Turning
the report of the State of Germany, said: "Germany have good relations
with Iran and its political and economic interests, and this is
reflected in a formal deal between them and the Houthis, by having a
permanent home for them in Germany take advantage of the definition of
their cause and their demands for political and human rights and their
rights, and Germany is the only open channel constantly between Iran and
the West, while tense situations, and may tend relations with the
Houthis to further development and humanitarian projects, he repeated
the German experience in Libya Muammar Gaddafi when supplied with an
electronic system of authoritarian military-security and espionage
character and programs. "
The
report four scenarios for war Houthis on integration, the first refers
to the success of the Houthis in the military control of the integration
and the liquidation of political opponents, saying that this scenario
is the weakest fact achieved costly human, financial and media is
supposed to achieve this scenario loss sectarian card in upcoming
expansions Houthis.
The
second scenario assumes entry Houthi in a long war of attrition with
the steadfastness of the Salafists and the formation of tribal military
force supporting them, the report, calling it one of the strongest
scenarios, but it makes the Houthis between two choices, either to
escape the control of the other areas and the bombing of the situation
in the capital and major cities, or withdraw from the battle and return
to the national dialogue without conditions.
In
the third scenario, the report assumes the withdrawal of al-Huthi of
confrontation and return to dialogue victorious after achieving a state
of high demands of its most important receiving a semi-autonomous, but
to achieve it supposedly getting a quick victory, US and international
support.
It is anticipated Scenarios and IV, "Continued fighting and the withdrawal of al-Huthi of national dialogue, the international community and the Security Council to move the Resolutions thru the United Nations delegate in Yemen Jamal bin Omar and intervention, Imposed on Huthi return to dialogue and acceptance Ptavath such as political integration and delivery of arms and Saada, the state, or join the movement of al-Huthi black lists within lists of terrorist groups and to face an international mechanism, a scenario increases interference from the outside but the necessities Imposed to Prevent sliding Yemen to chaos and civil war, Which is the main Objective of the Gulf Initiative . "
It is anticipated Scenarios and IV, "Continued fighting and the withdrawal of al-Huthi of national dialogue, the international community and the Security Council to move the Resolutions thru the United Nations delegate in Yemen Jamal bin Omar and intervention, Imposed on Huthi return to dialogue and acceptance Ptavath such as political integration and delivery of arms and Saada, the state, or join the movement of al-Huthi black lists within lists of terrorist groups and to face an international mechanism, a scenario increases interference from the outside but the necessities Imposed to Prevent sliding Yemen to chaos and civil war, Which is the main Objective of the Gulf Initiative . "
No comments:
Post a Comment